Who will win VMAs for Best Latin, K-Pop, R&B and Video for Good? Look out for BTS, SZA, Lil Nas X and more

The 2021 MTV Video Music Awards nominations recently dropped, so let’s see who can pick up some awards in the genre categories. I covered pop, hip-hop, rock, and alternative in an earlier article, so I’ll move on to the next four. Refresh your memory on all the nominees here.

While I could genuinely see any of the nominees winning, my gut tells me that one of the three crossover hits will win. “Un Día (One Day)” by J Balvin, Dua Lipa, Bad Bunny and Tainy could win based on name-recognition alone, getting votes from fans of three big Latin stars plus Dua Lipa. Still, Bunny’s own “Dakiti” featuring Jhay Cortez was undoubtedly the biggest hit among the nominees here, reaching the top five on Billboard’s Hot 100, so that could end up winning.

And of course we can’t underestimate Billie Eilish or Rosalía, who are both past VMA winners among myriad other awards. Still, I’m going to go with “Un Día”: the song has too many big names attached, and J Balvin has actually never lost this category (he has won for the past three years in a row since the category was re-introduced).

All of the nominated artists are either awards magnets or huge stars (or both), so this one is a little hard to predict. Let’s do it by process of elimination. H.E.R. is always picking up awards (including recent Grammy and Oscar upsets), but “Come Through” is very easily the least recognizable song here, so that’s first out. Giveon’s “Heartbreak Anniversary” was a big hit, but since this is a fan-voted award, there might be less passion for him than some of the bigger names in this lineup. Similarly, “Go Crazy” was a big hit, but Chris Brown might be a little too controversial to win against other stars who might be more palatable.

While we can’t underestimate Beyoncé’s sheer star power, “Brown Skin Girl” wasn’t a major commercial hits, and some of the other nominees might have more hype (though it did win the Grammy for Best Music Video, so don’t count it out). That leaves us with “Leave the Door Open” by Silk Sonic and “Good Days” by SZA. I will give a slight edge to SZA, who may have more young stans than the nostalgic, adult-appealing Silk Sonic. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked at Silk Sonic or Beyoncé pulling wins here, so consider this a three-way race.

There’s not much to say here: if BTS is nominated, they’ll likely win. The worldwide phenomenon hasn’t lost here since the category’s inception two years ago, and “Butter” is a much bigger hit than their past winners “Boy with Luv” (2019) and “On” (2020). If you had to pick a dark horse, it’d be “Ice Cream” by Blackpink and Selena Gomez; this is Gomez’s sole VMA nom this year, so her fans might join forces with Blackpink devotees to ensure a win.
This will be a battle between Billie Eilish for “Your Power” and Lil Nas X for “Montero (Call Me by Your Name).”

I am going to give Lil Nas X the edge since “Montero” is a huge, chart-topping hit and arguably the most popular and widely discussed video of the year, but never underestimate the Eilish fan base.

Be sure to make your MTV Video Music Award predictions so that music executives and top name stars can see how they’re faring in our odds. Don’t be afraid to jump in now since you can keep changing your predictions until the weekend of the awards. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. And join in the fierce debate over the VMAs taking place right now with Hollywood insiders in our music forums. Read more Gold Derby entertainment news.

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