Who Will Be the Next Pope? Gamblers Are Betting Millions Amid Papal Conclave

Who Will Be the Next Pope? Betting Markets Surge Amid Conclave

As the College of Cardinals gathers in Vatican City to elect the next pope, an unexpected trend has emerged—millions of dollars are being wagered on the outcome. Betting platforms worldwide are seeing a surge in activity as gamblers place high-stakes bets on which cardinal will ascend to the papacy.

Millions Wagered on Papal Election

With the papal conclave underway, online betting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have reported a combined total of over $24 million in wagers. Polymarket alone has seen $18 million placed on various candidates, while Kalshi has handled $6.7 million.

Among the frontrunners, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, leads the betting odds with a 27% chance of being elected. Close behind is Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, who holds a 22% probability. Other contenders include Matteo Zuppi (11%), Pierbattista Pizzaballa (10%), and Peter Erdo (7%), according to Catholicnewsagency.

Here’s a table of the favorites for the next pope.

Candidate	Nationality	Age	Odds	Betting Market Rank
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle	Filipino	67	9/4 (30.8%)	1st
Cardinal Pietro Parolin	Italian	70	5/2 (28.6%)	2nd
Cardinal Peter Turkson	Ghanaian	76	5/1 (16.7%)	3rd
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi	Italian	69	11/2 (15.4%)	4th
Cardinal Péter Erdő	Hungarian	72	7/1 (12.5%)	5th
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa	Italian	60	8/1 (11.1%)	6th
Cardinal Robert Sarah	Guinean	79	10/1 (9.1%)	7th

Betting markets have seen millions of dollars wagered on the papal election, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi handling over $24 million in bets.

Experts Weigh In on Betting Trends

Despite the surge in gambling activity, religious scholars and Vatican experts caution that betting markets may not accurately predict the next pope. Tom Nash, a Catholic commentator, noted, “Some cardinals who are faring well among oddsmakers may actually have less of a chance than others who are considered long shots.”

Historically, papal conclaves have been unpredictable. In 2013, Cardinal Angelo Scola was widely expected to win, yet the College of Cardinals ultimately elected Jorge Bergoglio, who became Pope Francis.

Ethical Concerns Surround Papal Betting

While betting on papal elections is not explicitly prohibited by Church law, some Catholics have raised ethical concerns. The Catechism of the Catholic Church does not condemn gambling outright, but critics argue that wagering on such a solemn event risks trivializing the sacred process.